(Kitco News) - The first rate hike in almost 10 years was a “close call” for some members of Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, according to the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting.
Although the decision to hike rates was passed unanimously, the minutes, released Wednesday,show a much more nuanced debate, According to the minutes, "some members said that their decision to raise the target range was a close call, particularly given the uncertainty about inflation dynamics, and emphasized the need to monitor the progress of inflation closely."
According to the minutes, the committee saw more risks to the economy if the lift off was delayed. The minutes noted that some members were worried that a delay could force the Fed to tight monetary policy more abruptly if economic growth picked up momentum.
Although the central bank has embarked on a new rate-hike cycle, the minutes show that the committee is not in any hurry to make another move. Inflation, or the lack thereof, remains a major concern among committee members.
" In the current situation, because of their significant concern about still-low readings on actual inflation and the uncertainty and risks present in the inflation outlook, they agreed to indicate that the Committee would carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. In determining the size and timing of further adjustments to monetary policy, some members emphasized the importance of confirming that inflation would rise as projected and of maintaining the credibility of the Committee's inflation objective," the minutes said.
While the central bank remained concerned about inflation, the committee, is optimistic that the the U.S. labor market and the economy will continue to grow. According to the minutes, the committee see that underutization in the labor market "diminished appreciably" in 2015 and expect that trend to continue.
"Members anticipated that economic activity was likely to continue to expand at a pace sufficient to lead to a further increase in the utilization of labor resources," the minutes said.
Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC World Markets, said the minutes reveal there is a minitory group in the committee that doesn't see the risk to the economy as completely balanced.
However, he added that the tone of the minutes does not shift the bank's expecation that the Fed will raise interest rates again in March.
"Our view that the Fed will hike once more by March and then pause rests on a view that it will take a bit longer to confirm the upturn in wages/prices, but unlike the market, we see two further hikes in Q4," he said.
By Neils Christensen of Kitco News; nchristensen@kitco.com
Follow Neils Christensen @neils_C
