(Kitco News) - Gold ended the U.S. day session near unchanged in a two-sided trading session Thursday. Some early profit-taking and chart consolidation was offset by fresh safe-haven demand and traders buying the early dip in prices. April Comex gold was last down $1.00 at $1,238.00 an ounce. March Comex silver was last down $0.122 at $15.17 an ounce.
Most world stock markets were firmer Thursday, on corrective rebounds from selling pressure seen the past couple days. U.S. stock indexes were narrowly mixed in early-afternoon trading Thursday. World equities markets continue to hinge upon the daily price movements of crude oil. Nymex crude oil futures were slightly lower Thursday and just below $32.00 a barrel. A Wall Street Journal survey showed big investment banks are less confident that crude oil prices will recover soon. The banks forecast an average crude oil price in 2016 of $39.00 a barrel. That’s down $11 from the same survey taken in January.
The Chinese stock market was the exception and sold off sharply Thursday, on worries about the health of China’s economy, which is the world’s second-largest. The Shanghai stock index closed down 6.4% on the day. For whatever reason, other world equities markets decided to ignore the sharp downturn in the Chinese stock market—for now. China is still a focal point for world traders and investors. On Friday the Group of 20 industrial nations meets, and China’s economic issues are likely to be a major topic.
A news report out Thursday said traders and investors worldwide have significantly stepped up their purchases of gold-backed exchange traded funds (ETFs) and other gold-based derivatives. Gold futures prices have rallied around 17% so far in 2016. The report highlighted that in just a short period of time the general public has really changed its tune about investing in gold—from bearish to bullish. The “smart money” in the marketplace can read this as hinting the gold market prices may have run too far, too fast, and need some time to consolidate now.
Technically, April gold futures prices closed nearer the session high. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the February high of $1,263.90. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at 1,200.00. First resistance is seen at $1,250.00 and then at this week’s high of $1,254.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,221.80 and then at $1,210.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0
March silver futures prices closed near mid-range today. The silver market bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $15.99 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $14.64. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $15.33 and then at this week’s high of $15.595. Next support is seen at today’s low of $15.03 and then at this week’s low of $14.945. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
March N.Y. copper closed down 240 points at 207.20 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 213.80 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 193.55 cents. First resistance is seen at 210.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 212.90 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 206.05 cents and then at 205.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.
By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com
Follow me on Twitter @jimwyckoff
