(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session moderately higher Monday, on some mild safe-haven demand and chart-based buying. The yellow metal had the best upside monthly performance in about four years. Prices are up around 15% so far this year. April Comex gold was last up $14.10 at $1,234.50 an ounce. May Comex silver was last up $0.206 at $14.92 an ounce.
U.S. economic data released Monday included the ISM Chicago business survey, the Texas manufacturing survey, and pending home sales. Overall, this data favored the weaker side of expectations and that was also a positive for the gold market. Monday’s reports fall into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves who do not want to see the Federal Reserve raise interest rates any time soon.
This last trading day of the month saw a bit of a risk-off trader and investor attitude in overnight action. World stock markets were mostly weaker Monday partly due to China once again lower the value of its currency, the yuan. There continue to be concerns about the health of the world’s second-largest economy. Chinese officials Monday lowered the reserve requirement ratio for its banks, which is a monetary policy easing move. The Shanghai stock index closed down 2.9% on the day.
The G-20 finance ministers meeting in China that ended over the weekend produced no significant results, according to most market watchers. This is a bit worrisome to those who were looking for some concrete action on China economic reforms.
The key “outside markets” on Monday saw crude oil prices trading higher in afternoon action, with Nymex April futures hovering just below $34.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index was firmer. Crude oil continues to have a heavy influence on daily price action in world stock markets.
There was more dour inflation data coming out of the European Union Monday. The Euro zone consumer price index in February was reported at minus 0.2%, year-on-year. The European Central Bank meets next week to decide whether to implement further monetary policy stimulus measures, in the face of worrisome deflationary price pressures.
Technically, April gold futures prices closed nearer the session high today. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A bullish symmetrical triangle pattern is also in place on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the February high of $1,263.90. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at 1,200.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,236.80 and then at $1,244.40. First support is seen at $1,225.00 and then at today’s low of $1,216.30. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0
May silver futures prices closed near the session high on short covering after hitting a four-week low early on today. The silver market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $16.005 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $14.00. First resistance is seen at $15.00 and then at Friday’s high of $15.26. Next support is seen at today’s low of $14.61 and then at $14.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
May N.Y. copper closed up 25 points at 212.75 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices Friday hit a 3.5-month high. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 225.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 200.20 cents. First resistance is seen at 214.05 cents and then at Friday’s high of 216.40 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 209.90 cents and then at 208.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com
Follow me on Twitter @jimwyckoff
