Gold Hits 15-Mth High Over $1,300 Before Mild Profit-Taking

(Kitco News) - Gold prices scored a 15-month high of $1,306.00 in June Nymex futures in morning U.S. trading Monday, before backing off the daily high as the session progressed, on some mild profit-taking pressure. A depreciating U.S. dollar on the world foreign exchange markets is a major bullish element working in the precious metals bulls’ favor. Some safe-haven demand amid nervous world stock markets and chart-based buying interest have also been featured in gold just recently. Silver prices also pushed to a 15-month high above $18.00 overnight, before also sliding on some profit-taking. June Comex gold was last steady $1,290.50 an ounce. July Comex silver was last down $0.264 at $17.55 an ounce.

A weakening U.S. dollar index that fell to an eight-month low Monday has been a bullish element for gold and the rest of the raw commodity sector recently. The rallying precious metals markets are one more clue the raw commodity sector has ended its bust cycle and is or will be embarking on a boom cycle.

The other “outside market” on Monday saw Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading just below $45.00 a barrel. Oil prices are still in a near-term uptrend after hitting a five-month high late last week.

The Japanese yen pushed to a 1.5-year high against the U.S. dollar Monday, which put more selling pressure on the Japanese stock market. Most other Asian stock markets were weaker Monday, on worries about the surging yen and the tanking Japanese stock market. China markets were closed for a holiday Monday.

U.S. stock indexes were higher and near their daily highs in afternoon trading, which also put a bit of selling pressure into the gold and silver markets.

Technically, June gold futures prices closed nearer the session low today after pushing above $1,300 and hitting a fresh 15-month high early on. The gold bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid longer-term technical resistance at $1,307.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at 1,250.00. First resistance is seen at $1,300.00 and then at $1,307.00. First support is seen at $1,287.80 and then at $1,280.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0

July silver futures prices closed near the session low today, scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart, and scored a 15-month high early on. If there is good follow-through selling pressure on Tuesday, then a bearish “key reversal” down would be confirmed on the daily bar chart, which would be an early technical clue that the silver market has put in a near-term top. But right now the silver market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $18.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.80. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $18.06 and then at $18.25. Next support is seen at $17.50 and then at $17.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

July N.Y. copper closed up down 205 points at 226.35 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 232.90 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of 207.90 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 229.50 and then at the April high of 230.55 cents. First support is seen at 225.00 cents and then at 222.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com