London 30/03/2012 - The metals put in a mixed performance yesterday, which given the early weakness in equities and the firmer dollar was surprising. However, further damage was done intraday with aluminium breaking support at $ 2,151 and $2,148 and joining nickel and lead as the weaker metals. Copper reached a low of $8,286, before closing at $8,360, so is still holding above key support levels at $8,262, $8,176 and $8,131. Overall the metals dropped by an average of 0.3 percent, with lead, zinc and tin showing gains, while the rest were lower.
A late rally on Wall Street dispelled the weaker tone and that has fed through to the metals this morning that are up an average of 0.9 percent. Tin has skewed the average gain by jumping 3.2 percent to $23,350, while the rest are up an average of 0.4 percent with copper at $8,400 and nickel up 0.7 percent at $17,375 – it has however been one of the weaker metals of late, it reached a low of $17,125 yesterday.
In Shanghai the June contracts are up an average of 0.2 percent with copper up 0.4 percent at Rmb 59,900, lead up 0.3 percent at Rmb 15,480, zinc is 0.1 percent firmer at Rmb 15,425 and aluminium is unchanged at Rmb 16,160.
Spot Changjiang copper is up 0.3 percent at Rmb 59,200-59,400 with the contango at an equivalent of around $80/tonne, while the LME/Shanghai arb window is closed, but it is narrowing with the differential around $340/tonne.
Equities – yesterday the Euro Stoxx 50 was down 1.8 percent, but the Dow recouped early weakness to end up 0.2 percent, but Asia is generally weaker with the Nikkei and Hang Seng down 0.6 percent, the MSCI Asia Apex is off 0.3 percent, although China is bucking the trend with a 0.2 percent climb. We wait to see whether the strength in the US was end-of-month/quarter window dressing.
The dollar did firm up yesterday, but it has weakened again with the dollar index at 78.87, the euro is firm at 1.3350, sterling is strong at 1.5995, the yen is strong at 82.10, the aussie is at 1.0408 and the yuan is last at 6.3015. Gold and silver have also once again found underlying support and have been helped by the weaker dollar.
The economic agenda is busy, Japan’s manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.1, household spending and housings starts beat expectations, while industrial production dropped 1.2 percent. In Europe, German retail sales fell 1.1 percent, while French consumer spending shot up 3 percent. Later we get EU data on CPI and in the US personal spending, income, prices, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan data.
The metals have been under pressure in recent days but buying has reappeared at the lower levels. Copper, tin and zinc’s support levels are still holding, while the others have breached support levels but do seem to be finding some scale down buying.
On balance we feel concerns over China will weigh on prices further, but it looks as though any move lower will be gradual as there is still scale down buying interest around – which given the tightness/availability of many of the metals is not surprising.
| TIME | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | Tokyo | Ha Noi | HongKong | LonDon | NewYork |
| Prices By NTGOLD | ||
|---|---|---|
| We Sell | We Buy | |
| 37.5g ABC Luong Bar | ||
| 5,333.50 | 4,913.50 | |
| 1oz ABC Bullion Cast Bar | ||
| 4,426.80 | 4,026.80 | |
| 100g ABC Bullion Bar | ||
| 14,205.60 | 12,905.60 | |
| 1kg ABC Bullion Silver | ||
| 1,728.40 | 1,378.40 | |
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