(Kitco News) – Concerns that gold prices were overstretched at $3,000 per ounce proved unfounded as the yellow metal went on another strong run this week, ultimately topping out only $13 short of $3,100 as tariffs, inflation, and geopolitical risk boosted safe-haven flows.
Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $3,024 per ounce, and churned sideways in a relatively narrow $10 channel until the start of Monday's North American trading session knocked it back down to a test of $3,000 by mid-afternoon.
Support held, however, and this would be the last time gold prices would get that close to the round number, as the spot market then spent three days trading between $3,010 and $3,030 per ounce.
Gold's first big move of the week began shortly after 10:00 p.m. on Wednesday evening, with Asian traders driving gold prices above $3,037 per ounce shortly after midnight, and after a pullback to $3,027 at 2:30 a.m. European traders pushed gold all the way to $3,055 per ounce just before 8:00 a.m. Eastern.
Once again, the start of the North American session drove the yellow metal back down to support. But this time, support was just below $3,040 per ounce, and the rebound from that level saw gold set a fresh weekly high above $3,057 just before noon.
As was the case earlier in the week, bullish Asian traders took the reins, and this time they drove gold all the way to a new all-time high of $3,075 per ounce shortly after 10:00 p.m., and $3,087 at 3:00 a.m. Eastern.
By the time the final North American trading session of the week began, spot gold was trading at $3,075 per ounce, with traders content to oscillate between $3,070 and $3085 for the duration of the day's trading.
The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed extreme bullishness toward gold’s price potential among industry experts, while retail traders grew only slightly more optimistic about gold prices for the week ahead.
“I am bullish on gold for the coming week,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. “It has broken out to the upside once again and looks technically strong amid a world of uncertainty.”
“That being said, there is the potential for significant volatility next week, particularly around April 2, depending on whether President Trump follows through on his tariff threats or not.”
“Up,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “Gold broke through the proclaimed $3,000 barrier without blinking. The reasons to buy gold are still intact while there remains a lot of buying potential, from central banks, from the Chinese consumer, and from the North American investor, the last largely untapped yet.”
“Higher,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “The ease with which gold blew through $3,000 per ounce after the recent bout of profit-taking suggests strength.”
“Up,” said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. “The equation is simple: As long as the geopolitical situation remains status quo, the trend in gold as a safe-haven market will remain status quo.”
“Up,” said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. “Bulls haven’t let go of control yet, and I have little evidence to suggest that they will anytime soon. The quarterly cut could be reason for profit taking, but to this point 3k has held support, so I’d still refrain from getting bearish until greater evidence presented itself.”
“Lower,” said Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com. “I expect USMCA to de-escalate global trade tensions and that should lead to a sag in gold. Ultimately, that will be a dip to buy.”
John Weyer, director of the commercial hedge division at Walsh Trading, sees significant upside potential for gold prices next week as tariffs and inflation concerns combine to spook investors into safe havens.
“I think we're going to be higher next week,” he said. “We got some inflationary data today, and continued concerns about tariffs, what they are on, how much, when they're going to be, how much are going to be still out there. And gold becomes a safe-haven play for many.”
Weyer said that even if the tariff talk is de-escalated and markets see a scaled-back version on April 2, gold will still have good reason to rise.
“If [Trump] gives some back, you're still going to be near $3,000,” he said. “Let's say they're a smaller tariff, that still leaves a lot of unknowns out there, what the effects will be down the road. I still think that gives it a reason to stay above $2,900 and around the $3000 area.”
But Weyer believes the more likely scenario is significant tariffs and the fear they bring, which would push gold above this week’s record levels.
“I think we could be at $3,200 or $3,300 if everything that's been projected happens,” he said. “I think we could get there because it's really in front of you then, that it's happening. There still might be some people [today] who are thinking, ‘Maybe it's not going to happen,’ and they're going to be jumping on board as well.”
This week, 20 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street bulls taking near-total control after last week’s balanced sentiment. 15 experts, or 85%, expected to see gold prices rise further during the week ahead, while only one analyst, or 5%, predicted a price decline for the precious metal. The remaining two experts, representing 10% of the total, saw further consolidation for gold.
Meanwhile, 202 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street sentiment improving only slightly from the prior week. 129 retail traders, or 64%, looked for gold prices to rise higher next week, while another 39, or 19%, expected the yellow metal to trade lower. The remaining 34 investors, representing 17% of the total, saw gold prices trending sideways during the week ahead.
| TIME | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | Tokyo | Ha Noi | HongKong | LonDon | NewYork |
| Prices By NTGOLD | ||
|---|---|---|
| We Sell | We Buy | |
| 37.5g ABC Luong Bar | ||
| 6,226.40 | 5,776.40 | |
| 1oz ABC Bullion Cast Bar | ||
| 5,182.40 | 4,732.40 | |
| 100g ABC Bullion Bar | ||
| 16,534.60 | 15,134.60 | |
| 1kg ABC Bullion Silver | ||
| 1,815.90 | 1,440.90 | |
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