Swiss customs data for February was reported today. Switzerland was a net exporter of
platinum (72.5Kozs) and palladium (103.4Kozs). While on m/m basis we do not read
too much into the data, on balance it is bullish.
Three things worth noting; firstly, the main reason for more platinum flowing out of
Switzerland than what came in during February is the decline in SA platinum exports to
Switzerland. Because of the strikes, exports collapsed to 13.9Kozs, down from 106Kozs
in January and 33Kozs in December. Secondly, the US was a large importer of palladium
in February – almost 50Kozs. Thirdly, Russia exported a mere 6.5Kozs.
Gold remains under pressure. The 10-year US bond yield managed to creep back above
its 200d MA at 2.67%. With a high correlation between the gold price and US real bond
yields, combined with weak physical demand and our expectations of a further rise in
the US government bond yield, we think that gold will back down. We would not trade
event risk around the Ukraine, which would, in our view, make adding longs unattractive
from risk/return perspective.

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