(Kitco News) – Gold prices explored every inch of the space between $3,300 and $3,400 per ounce this week, and when the dust had settled, traders were content to leave the yellow metal exactly where they found it.
Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $3,307.44 per ounce, and little stood in its way in the early going. After a brief retest of support near $3,300, gold prices rocketed higher during the Asian and European sessions, and by the North American open, spot gold was already trading at $3,366 per ounce.
By 6:45 p.m. EDT on Monday, the gold price had topped out at $3,390 per ounce, a level that would hold as the weekly high for the next few days.
From there, spot gold laddered lower overnight, and after a sharp dip down below $3,340 half an hour after Tuesday’s North American open, gold settled into a comfortable $40 range over the next two days, though the price did see some sharp peaks and valleys.
Spot gold finally broke above $3,380 just after 5:00 a.m. Eastern on Thursday morning, ultimately topping out at the weekly high of $3,403 per ounce. But after no new buyers emerged at these lofty levels, traders were content to book profits, and by noon Eastern, gold was all the way back down to $3,345 per ounce.
From there, the yellow metal saw its slowest and steadiest climb of the week, ultimately topping out at $3,374 per ounce by 1:00 a.m. Friday morning. And after gold failed to hold support at $3,350 at the American open, traders drove the spot price quickly down to $3,324 per ounce. By the market close, gold was almost right back where it began, though longs could take solace in the fact that $3,300 was never seriously threatened.
The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed industry experts evenly divided on gold’s prospects, while retail traders grew more bullish after gold held key support.
“Up,” said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. “I think it’s easy to look at the way that the week has played out and then look for a deeper pullback. But I’m still biased as bullish on gold and would rather look for another support to hit for the broader trend to play through.”
“At this point, I have spot testing support at prior resistance from 3325, and the notable item for me last week was how gold set a fresh near-term high with a bit of run above 3350,” Stanley added. “So I’m not going to count bulls out yet, and I have deeper supports at both 3300 and 3280.”
“Lower,” said Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com. “There are signs that the White House is in dealmaking mode. Gold is largely a trade war proxy at the moment, and we should see some moderate selling as deals are announced.”
“Higher,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “Momentum favors both gold and silver at present. Although we may see some profit-taking, I expect gold to build higher over the next week on a weaker U.S. dollar, stalled peace initiatives in the Middle East and Ukraine, continued tariff ramifications, and the realization that the Big Beautiful Bill going through the U.S. Senate right now will increase the debt and lead to further monetary expansion and consumer price inflation.”
“Up,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “Finally, there are indications that North American investors are picking up their gold purchases, not yet in any flood, but the tide is turning.”
Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, was weighing the market’s reaction to Friday morning’s employment report.
“The number wasn't excellent, but it wasn't horrible either,” Lusk said. “It just dispels some of the economic slowdown talk. The dollar’s up… bond yields were up too, that's prompting maybe a little uneasiness here.”
“Listen, S&Ps are back, we're higher on the year,” he noted. “We're higher on the year in the Nasdaq, and we're just slightly lower in the Dow. You’re basically where you were last December at the end of the year, a little better than that, with all the stuff that's happened, which is a hell of a story here, a 20% rally up from April’s lows.”
“I'm surprised we're now down further in gold,” Lusk added. “But I think geopolitically, with everything going on, maybe you're not shorting it on a Friday.”
Barring something major in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Lusk doesn’t see gold prices moving significantly higher in the near term.
“You're just doing a lot better than anybody thought possible,” he said. “What's the appeal here? Get long at $3,400 an ounce when the stock market's going nuts?”
“Now you can make the argument, and you would be correct in saying, you've had gold largely rally with equities over the last two years,” he conceded. “A lot of that was foreign central bank buying, to shore up all the money printing. It's a big part of why gold continues to get support here. But at the end of the day, nothing goes up forever, and some of the safe haven trade’s taken out of this, meaning if you get a couple of signed agreements and some of the saber-rattling backs off here, you're going to have a real hard time not retesting the recent lows down at $3,150.”
“Historically, you’ve just never been here,” he added. “Especially for the public who's gotten in long last. So coming into a month-end and quarter-end… I'd be really careful here. This bull is going to need to be fed up at these levels, because without it, those who have been long a long time aren't going to sit around here.”
Lusk is watching some major near-term support levels because if they fail to hold, gold could give back much of this year’s gains.
“You look at that Monday candle, we went up $80 on the geopolitical stuff,” he said. “If we blow through that again to the downside, technically this market will trade back down, $3,294 to $3,287 is going to be your support. But if they blow through that, it’s all the way down to $3,150, which is your May low, and if they blow through that, they're going to the April lows, $2,970 or $2,950. Those are the targets down.”
This week, 14 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street maintaining its wait-and-see attitude after this week’s rise and fall. Seven experts, or 50%, expected to see gold prices rise during the week ahead, while six other analysts, or 43%, predicted price declines for the yellow metal. The remaining analyst, representing 7% of the total, saw gold trading sideways next week.
Meanwhile, 256 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street growing more bullish after gold held its ground. 169 retail traders, or 66%, looked for gold prices to rise next week, while 39, or 15%, expected the yellow metal to trade lower. The remaining 48 investors, or 19%, saw prices continuing to consolidate during the week ahead.
| TIME | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | Tokyo | Ha Noi | HongKong | LonDon | NewYork |
| Prices By NTGOLD | ||
|---|---|---|
| We Sell | We Buy | |
| 37.5g ABC Luong Bar | ||
| 6,520.50 | 5,970.50 | |
| 1oz ABC Bullion Cast Bar | ||
| 5,438.20 | 4,918.20 | |
| 100g ABC Bullion Bar | ||
| 17,234.30 | 15,634.30 | |
| 1kg ABC Bullion Silver | ||
| 1,993.50 | 1,598.50 | |
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