Gold forged its highs early in Monday's US trading action before prices faded throughout the rest of the session. It
is possible that weakness in the Dollar provided some lift to gold on Monday, but with the Dollar forging a distinct
downside breakout overnight, that situation could begin to provide as much support as events in the Ukraine. It is
also possible that gold will continue to draft some lift off rising South African supply-side threats, as the AMCU is
calling for an industry-wide mining strike and it is also possible that gold might derive some fresh lift off violence
and uncertainty into the May 7th election in South Africa. In the near-term, reports of spreading violence in the
Ukraine might be enough to leave the bull camp with modest control, even though the world lacks proof that
Russia is providing the so-called "Russian Separatists" with weapons capable of shooting down helicopters. Gold
derivative holdings on Monday declined by 100,931 ounces to stand at 48.2 million ounces, and that probably
serves to curtail bullish interest in gold somewhat. However, in a positive note overnight Harmony Mines and
Glencore Xstrata both reported lower quarterly gold production. With the range up action in gold on Monday,
showing up on a rise in open interest, it would appear that more buyers are being attracted into the gold market
despite higher prices and that combined with a downside breakout in the Dollar, should leave the bull camp with
the edge today. Comex Gold Stocks were 7.995 million ounces up 109,924 ounces overnight. With open interest
confirming a short-term bull trend, solid support in June Gold moves up to the even number $1,300 level and
initial resistance is seen up at $1,318.70, and perhaps not until the $1,331 level. We would also like to remain
long gold at least into the end of the week, as the situation in South Africa is likely to heat up off the Wednesday
election and from the potential for violence on Thursday when some striking platinum miners might try to return to
work against the wishes of the AMCU.

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