Gold prices are moderately lower in early U.S. trading Tuesday, on some profit taking after hitting a three-week high on Monday. August Comex gold was last down $10.30 at $1,265.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $7.40 at $1,264.75. July Comex silver last traded down $0.125 at $19.59 an ounce.

The civil war in Iraq remains on the front burner of the market place Tuesday. The situation there has not improved early this week, so there is still some keener risk aversion among many traders and investors. And the Russia-Ukraine tensions are still running high as Russia has cut the natural gas supply to Ukraine and said it will supply natural gas to Ukraine only if paid for in advance. These two geopolitical flashpoints will continue to be very closely monitored for new developments. Both situations are likely to become worse before they become better. The gold market should at least see limited selling interest as these two issues play out, and will likely see more safe-haven demand from traders and investors.

Crude oil prices are at or near multi-month highs, while U.S. Treasuries are also supported on the more unsettled geopolitical front. World stock markets have seen some selling pressure in the wake of the rising geopolitical tensions.  It would not surprise me to see this new geopolitical risk be one factor that helps to put in major tops in the world stock markets.

The big economic data point of the week is the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon, including a press briefing following the meeting by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Most market watchers expect the FOMC to continue to taper its monthly bond-buying program, also called quantitative easing. As usual, the FOMC statement and Yellen’s comments at her press conference will be parsed for clues on future action coming from the FOMC.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the consumer price index, new residential construction, and the FOMC meeting begins.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.0 (Violence and civil war in Iraq has the world market place increasingly concerned.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fix is $1,264.50 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,276.25.

Technically, August gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls have made a good move but need to show more power soon to suggest an uptrend can be sustained. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,250.10. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,273.50 and then at $1,280.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,262.80 and then at $1,258.00.  

July silver futures bulls have gained some technical momentum. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $20.005 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $18.97. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $19.69 and then at Monday’s high of $19.875. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $19.52 and then at $19.33.

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