Gold prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading Tuesday and hit a 10-week high overnight. Safe-haven demand and a much-improved technical posture in gold recently are fueling upside price pressure. August Comex gold was last up $2.30 at $1,320.70 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $2.70 at $1,321.50. July Comex silver last traded up $0.099 at $21.015 an ounce.

There is a heavy slate of U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday, including the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the monthly house price index, new residential sales, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index. Some of these reports could be markets-movers.

In overnight news, the German Ifo consumer sentiment survey came in weaker than expected. The Ifo reading was 109.7 in June versus 110.4 in May. A figure of 110.2 was expected. Worries about the Iraq and Ukraine crisis weighed on German consumer sentiment. The downbeat Ifo report adds more weight to the notions that the European Union’s economy remains in serious trouble. This is also an underlying supportive factor for the safe-haven gold market.

The civil war in Iraq remains a market factor. While the matter could still be prompting some risk aversion in the market place and is still supportive for gold and U.S. Treasury prices, the U.S. stock indexes are hovering near record or multi-year highs, which hints risk aversion is not that keen at present. However, it’s likely the Iraqi crisis will not go away and could escalate at any time.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (Civil war in Iraq still has the world market place somewhat concerned.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fix is $1,323.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,313.50.

Technically, August gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices Tuesday hit a 10-week high and a three-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the April high of $1,331.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,326.60 and then at $1,331.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,314.50 and then at Monday’s low of $1,310.40.  

July silver futures pushed to a three-month high overnight. The bulls have gained good upside technical momentum and have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $21.825 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $20.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $21.17 and then at $21.25. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $20.81 and then at Monday’s low of $20.735.

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