Gold futures prices are modestly lower in early U.S. trading Tuesday. The market weakened just a bit after the ADP national employment report for June came in at up 281,000, which beat most market expectations. August Comex gold was last down $1.30 at $1,325.20 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $1.80 at $1,324.75. December Comex silver last traded down $0.142 at $21.035 an ounce.

In overnight trading, Asian and European stock markets followed the U.S. stock market higher Wednesday, despite some more downbeat economic data from the European Union and China. The EU’s producer prices fell 0.1% in May from April, and were down 1.0% on the year. Reports overnight said land sales in China’s major cities declined by 29% in the second quarter. This downbeat data lends more weight to notions among many market watchers that China’s economy, the world’s second-largest, is wobbling at least a bit. The EU has seen a string of worrisome economic data that prompted the ECB to further ease its monetary policy last month.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is significant and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Challenger job-cut report, the ISM New York report on business, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

It’s a holiday-shortened trading week in the U.S., what with the Independence Day holiday on Friday. The key U.S. jobs report is issued a day early this month, on Thursday. This report is arguably the most important U.S. economic data of the month. The non-farm payroll employment figure is forecast to come in at up 215,000 in June.
Also on Thursday will be the monthly monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank. No changes in ECB monetary policy are expected. It will be an extra important trading day on Thursday.

The civil war in Iraq is still an issue for the market place but it has at least temporarily moved off the front burner. Ukraine said Thursday that its military has made progress against the pro-Russian rebels, amid heavy fighting. Don’t be surprised to see in the near future this matter move back into the spotlight of the market place and once again significantly impact some market prices.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (Civil war in Iraq still has the world market place somewhat concerned.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fix is $1,326.75 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,327.50.

Technically, August gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,350.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,330.40 and then at this week’s high of $1,334.90. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,322.10 and then at this week’s low of $1,311.00.  

December silver futures bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $21.825 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $20.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $21.21 and then at this week’s high of $21.33. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $21.035 and then at this week’s low of $20.87.

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