Gold Ends Higher On A Day When Most Raw Commodity Markets Lower

(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session firmer Tuesday, supported by mostly weaker world stock markets and by some backing and filling on the charts following recent selling pressure. Looking at the general selling pressure seen across the entire raw commodity futures spectrum Tuesday, gold bulls should feel pretty good with their modest daily gains. August Comex gold was last up $3.10 an ounce at $1,332.50. September Comex silver was last down $0.09 at $19.985 an ounce.

The key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for the raw commodity sector on Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and supported by a stronger-than-expected U.S. housing report. New home construction rose 4.8% in June, while a 0.9% rise was expected from the previous month. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices were slightly lower amid ongoing concerns about a world oil supply glut. Crude oil prices are in a near-term price downtrend on the daily bar chart.

Global stock markets on Tuesday saw corrective pullbacks from recent gains that have seen many world stock indexes recover all of their post-Brexit losses, and then some. Japan’s Nikkei stock index posted its sixth straight gain Tuesday, amid hopes the Bank of Japan will soon announce further monetary policy stimulus measures. U.S. stock indexes were weaker in afternoon New York trading.

The Wall Street Journal ran a story Tuesday saying U.S. Federal Reserve officials are now confident the FOMC can raise interest rates yet this year, and possibly as early as September. The story extrapolated recent public comments from Fed officials. Financial markets have stabilized after the Brexit vote and there has been some more upbeat economic news coming out of the European Union, the report said. This report falls into the camp of the raw commodity market bears.

Much of the focus and news headlines this week are likely to come from the U.S. Republican National Convention held in Cleveland, Ohio. The convention began Monday and was not without controversy.

The “dog days” of summer are soon approaching, which is likely to see trading interest in many markets taper off until after the U.S. Labor Day holiday in early September.

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Technically, August gold futures prices closed nearer the session high today. The gold bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the July high of $1,377.50. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,336.00 and then at $1,340.00. First support is seen at $1,320.00 and then at $1,310.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0

September silver futures prices closed near mid-range. The silver market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $21.22 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $20.295 and then at $20.50. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $19.77 and then at $19.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 245 points at 226.20 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at a 2.5-month high close today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 232.95 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 211.65 cents. First resistance is seen at the July high of 227.75 cents and then at 230.00 cents. First support is seen at 224.00 cents and then at today’s low of 222.35 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com