Gold's Strong Losses Tuesday Somewhat Puzzling, Could Be Portent For Other Markets

(Kitco News) - The sharp losses in gold on Tuesday, in which prices were down around $40.00 an ounce and hit a 3.5-month low, are being blamed on a stronger U.S. dollar (mainly due to a big drop in the British pound), some chart-based selling and a bit of Fed speak. (See my PM Kitco Metals report). However, the magnitude of gold's downslide Tuesday compared to the only moderate gains in the U.S. dollar index today, are somewhat puzzling. Also, today's comments from a Fed official that seemed a bit hawkish on U.S. monetary policy are not that different from other Fed officials' hawkish comments we've heard the past few months. One could argue that gold should not have been down anywhere near $40.00 an ounce based upon today's news events. However, "it is what it is" and markets are never wrong on any given day.

What Tuesday's big downside price action in gold could be forecasting is bigger and unexpected price moves are on the horizon for other markets. This is especially compelling given that it is early October--a month that has been historically turbulent for many markets. If indeed the gold market's big down-move on Tuesday is a harbinger of things to come in other markets in the near term, the irony is that such an outcome could actually be a bullish development for safe-haven gold.

By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com