Gold Down On Some Upbeat US Data; Silver Pops

(Kitco News) - Gold prices are modestly down in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. Some stronger U.S. economic data gave the monetary policy doves some pause on their notions of several interest rate cuts in the coming months. Meantime, silver futures pushed to a nearly four-month high today on chart-based buying interest and bargain hunting. August gold futures were last down $3.60 an ounce at 1,409.80. September Comex silver prices were last up $0.295 at $15.655 an ounce.

The daily chart for gold still shows a “collapse in volatility,” whereby the past three sessions have seen significantly quieter price action. This suggests that a bigger price move is right on the horizon, probably yet this week. Given that the daily gold chart remains bullish, odds favor that bigger price move being to the upside.

Tuesday’s release of the U.S. retail sales report for June showed a stronger-than-expected rise of 0.4%, which pushed the U.S. dollar index to solid gains on the day and in turn put downside pressure on the gold market. Other U.S. data released today was a mixed bag and fairly inconsequential.

In overnight news, there was a downbeat economic report coming out of Germany, as the ZEW economic expectations index and current conditions index worsened in July. Germany is the economic workhorse for the European Union.

The other key “outside market” today sees Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading just above $59.00 a barrel.  

Technically, August gold futures prices closed nearer the session low. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping in place a seven-week-old uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the June high of $1,442.90. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,384.70. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,421.60 and then at last week’s high of $1,429.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,403.70 and then at $1,400.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

September silver futures prices closed nearer the session high and hit a nearly four-month high today. The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $16.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $14.915. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $15.735 and then at the March high of $15.835. Next support is seen at $15.50 and then at today’s low of $15.34. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

September N.Y. copper closed down 60 points at 270.50 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 275.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 259.95 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 273.55 cents and then at 275.70 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 268.55 cents and then at 265.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.