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GOLD
2012-04-02 16:09:56

 

Technical Analysis - Gold - Looking to break out in near term

 

Short term:
Medium term:
Long term:
Resistances:
R1 1,666 DTL
R2 1,672 21 DMA
R3 1,682 100 DMA
R4 1,681 UTL
R5 1,688 38.2% Fibo
R6 1,690 200 DMA
R7 1,691 DTL
Support:
S1 1,666 DTL
S2 1,656 50% Fibo
S3 1,648 UTL
S4 1,634
S5 1,624 61.8% Fibo
S6 1,611
Legend: UTL = uptrend line

 

DTL = downtrend line

BB = Bollinger band

DMA = daily moving average

 

 

Analysis

  • Gold closed positively on Friday but has been unable to continue higher this morning. 
  • Gold has pierced below the 7 DMA and the 21 DMA.
  • The stochastics are attempting to cross lower, while the RSI is neutral.
  • The BBs are converging again, suggesting a forthcoming breakout.
  • Gold has support from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,656 from the December 2011 low to the February 29, 2012 high. 
  • The metal is trading in a short-term triangle formation at $1,648-1,691 and is above an old down channel at $1,666-1,573.

Conclusion

  • We are still neutral while gold trades in a small symmetrical triangle formation.
  • We will either turn negative on a break and close below $1,655-$1,556-$1,648 (UTL/50% Fibo/UTL) and leave a turn-neutral trigger around these levels, citing $1,635-$1,630-$1,624-$1,611 as our downside targets.
  • Otherwise, we could turn positive and on a close above $1,666 tonight as long as the stochastics do not follow through and sustain the present bearish cross.
  • We are therefore neutral in the short-to-medium term but expect this to change in the coming week as gold looks to break out. Confirmation of this breakout will be seen in the BBs.
  • We are neutral-positive in the long term while gold continues to trade in this large triangle formation.

 



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