Copper traders are the least bearish in a month after the commodity had its best start to a year since 2009 and stockpiles tracked by the world’s biggest metals exchange were poised to slump to the lowest in 3 1/2 years.

Fourteen of 30 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the metal to decline next week, the lowest proportion since Dec. 23. Three were neutral. Prices reached a four-month high of $8,410 a metric ton yesterday, taking this year’s advance to 11 percent. Inventories (LSCA)tracked by the London Metal Exchange are already the smallest since December 2010 and existing orders to withdraw metal may reduce that to the lowest since July 2009.

China, which consumes 40 percent of the world’s copper, expanded 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter, the slowest pace in 10 quarters. That increased speculation the government will stimulate lending to shore up the economy. While global growth is slowing, demand is still exceeding supply from mines. The shortages will reach 363,000 tons this year, enough to meet more than a month of European demand,Barclays Capital estimates.

“Physical metal has been tightening,” said Angus Staines, an analyst at UBS AG in London. “Demand consumption will still grow and that’s largely driven by China.”

Copper is rebounding from a 21 percent plunge in 2011, the first decline since 2008. Its rally to $8,337 this year beat the 2.4 percent gain in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index (MXWD) of 24 commodities and the 4.4 percent advance in the MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD) of equities. Treasuries returned less than 0.1 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

Chinese Growth

China’s fourth-quarter growth, announced by the national statistics bureau Jan. 17, exceeded the 8.7 percent anticipated by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. U.S. factory output climbed 0.9 percent last month, the most in a year, Federal Reserve data showed the following day. The U.S. is the biggest buyer of copper after China.

Stockpiles monitored by the LME slid 26 percent since October to 351,200 tons, with Asian inventories plunging 82 percent in the period. Combined stockpiles tracked by bourses in London, New York and Shanghai tumbled 15 percent over the same period, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“It looks as if the copper market is in deficit,” said John Meyer, an analyst at Fairfax IS in London. “U.S. economic figures are looking better and there’s talk of China doing a soft landing.”

Money Managers

Speculators are paring bets on lower prices. Hedge funds and other money managers had a net-short position of 2,465 U.S. futures and options in the week ended Jan. 10, compared with 9,489 contracts three months ago. They’ve held a net-short position since mid-September, the longest stretch since July 2009, a month after the last U.S. recession ended.

The World Bank cut its global growth forecast by the most in three years on Jan. 18, saying that a recession in the euro region threatens emerging markets. The institution’s forecast for 2012 growth of 2.5 percent was down from June’s estimate of 3.6 percent and compares with a 2.7 percent expansion in 2011.

“You only have to look at the World Bank downward revisions to world growth to see that all is not well in the global economy,” said William Adams, a London-based analyst at Basemetals.com, a data and information provider. Copper prices may be “running ahead of themselves,” he said.

The metal’s 14-day relative-strength index yesterday rose above 70, a level that indicates to some analysts who study technical charts that a drop in prices may be imminent.

China’s Exports

Copper usage in Europe slipped 1 percent in 2011 and will decline 2 percent this year, according to Barclays. Weaker consumption in Europe may hurt demand for imported goods. Chinese exports rose 13.4 percent in December from a year earlier, the slowest pace since February, customs data show.

Nine of 20 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect gold to gain next week and four were neutral. Futures on the Comex in New York rose 5.5 percent to $1,653.10 an ounce this month after last year’s 10 percent increase.

Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products at 2,354.9 tons are within 2 percent of the record set last month. Metal in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETP backed by bullion, rose 0.1 percent on Jan. 17, the first gain since Nov. 30.

Nine of 14 people surveyed expect raw-sugar prices to climb next week. The commodity slid 27 percent last year and is up 5.2 percent this month at 24.51 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Traders are betting that the biggest sugar glut since 2007 will shrink in the next harvest, with the March 2013 contract now trading at a premium to the July 2012 contract. Six months ago it was at a discount.

Corn Survey

Fourteen of 27 people surveyed anticipate higher corn prices next week, while 15 of 28 said soybeans will advance. Corn dropped 7.2 percent this month to $6.0025 a bushel after increasing 2.8 percent in 2011. Soybeans are down 1.2 percent in January at $11.9375 a bushel after sliding 14 percent last year.

“It looks like the U.S. is getting better rather than worse, and Europe is troughing out,” said Ric Deverell, head of global commodities research at Credit Suisse Group AG in London. “Eight percent to 9 percent growth in China is still making a very large contribution to global commodity consumption.”

Gold survey results: Bullish: 9 Bearish: 7 Hold: 4
Copper survey results: Bullish: 13 Bearish: 14 Hold: 3
Corn survey results: Bullish: 14 Bearish: 8 Hold: 5
Soybean survey results: Bullish: 15 Bearish: 9 Hold: 4
Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 9 Bearish: 3 Hold: 2
White sugar survey results: Bullish: 8 Bearish: 3 Hold: 3
White sugar premium results: Widen: 5 Narrow: 5 Neutral: 4

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter atccarpenter2@bloomberg.net.

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