The euro headed for a weekly gain before reports today forecast to show a rebound in German exports and French industrial production, reducing speculation the central bank will cut interest rates further.

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged yesterday and President Mario Draghi said the environment “has improved enormously.” The euro was set to gain against the yen this week before European finance ministers hold a conference call today to discuss the result of Greece’s debt swap. The dollar traded near a nine-month high versus the yen before data that may show an increase in U.S. payrolls, reducing speculation the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy further.

“The ECB sent a message that it won’t cut interest rates further,” said Toshiya Yamauchi, a senior currency analyst in Tokyo at Ueda Harlow Ltd., which provides foreign-exchange margin-trading services. “From the perspective of yield differentials, it’s a buying catalyst for the euro.”

The euro traded at $1.3263 as of 10:16 a.m. in Tokyo, 0.1 percent below the close in New Yorkyesterday, having climbed 0.5 percent this week. The common currency fetched 108.26 yen from 108.27 yen yesterday. It has risen 0.3 percent since March 2. The dollar bought 81.63 yen from 81.56 yesterday. It touched 81.87 on March 2, the highest level since May 26.

Germany’s exports probably rose 2 percent in January from the previous month, when they slumped 4.5 percent, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey before today’s data release. Another report may show industrial production in Franceincreased 0.5 percent in January, following a 1.4 percent decline in December.

‘Stabilization’

“The risk environment has improved enormously” and recent data “confirm signs of a stabilization” in the euro-area economy, Draghi said after the ECB left its benchmark rate at a record-low 1 percent yesterday. He also said there are “many signs of returning confidence in the euro.”

Greece’s government got creditors to agree to exchange about 85 percent of their holdings of the country’s debt for new securities, according to a banker briefed on the results of the debt swap.

With Greece again the focus of the euro-area debt crisis, the goal of the exchange is to reduce the 206 billion euros ($273 billion) of privately held Greek debt by 53.5 percent. Along with a 130 billion-euro bailout package for Greece, the writedown is a key element in European leaders’ efforts to combat the crisis.

Greek Debt Swap

The offer went very positively and a final result will be released today at 8 a.m. in Athens, a government official said. The number of bonds tendered in the swap is still being tallied, said the official, who declined to be identified.

“It would be meaningless to be short on the euro once the Greek situation settles,” said Kazuo Shirai, a trader at Union Bank NA in Los Angeles. “The euro is being bought because Greece is overcoming a hurdle.”

The euro has strengthened 0.6 percent in the past week, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, which track 10 developed-market currencies. The dollar was little changed and the yen gained 0.3 percent.

U.S. employers probably added more than 200,000 jobs for a third straight month in February, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed before today’s jobs report. The Fed, which next meets March 13, bought $2.3 trillion of securities in two rounds of so-called quantitative easing from December 2008 to June 2011 and has pledged to keep interest rateslow through at least late 2014.

“There is a good chance that markets will turn their focus to a sustainable recovery in the U.S. economy,” said Ueda Harlow’s Yamauchi. “An improvement in the economy will lead to expectations for an interest-rate increase, which is positive for the dollar.”

Australian Trade

The Australian dollar weakened against 14 of its 16 major counterparts after a report showed the nation unexpectedly posted a trade deficit in January.

Imports exceeded exports by A$673 million ($715 million), from a revised A$1.325 billion surplus in December, the Bureau of Statistics said today. Economists expected a A$1.5 billion surplus for January, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

The Australian dollar dropped 0.1 percent to $1.0632.

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