Once again, gold has found resistance in Asia because buying in the physical market is
still muted. We expect interest to pick up substantially when the gold price drops below
$1,300.
The US Fed minutes of the 28–29 January FOMC meeting may be more upbeat about
US growth than expected because the meeting took place before recent US data had
started undershooting expectations. Initially, this may be bearish for gold. However, we
ultimately expect the market to look past the minutes towards more recent statements
by the Fed, such as Chair Yellen’s monetary policy report to the House Financial
Services Committee last week when she indicated that the reduction in asset purchases
by the Fed was likely to continue at $10bn per month.
Gold support is at $1,312 and $1,302. Resistance is at $1,332 and $1,342.
The gold/platinum spread remains close to $100, implying that most of the movement
in platinum is being driven by market factors, not the production problems in South
Africa. There are no new developments on the strikes in South Africa. Talks between
AMCU and the CCMA continue. AMCU leadership is in the process of consulting with
the broader union membership.
We look with great interest to the Swiss customs data due for release tomorrow.
We are interested in (a) how much SA exported to Zurich in January. We expect the
m/m exports of platinum to have declined due to the strikes; (b) how much platinum
China imported from Switzerland in January. We expect that jewellery demand was
strong because of a relatively low platinum price (platinum averaged $1,424 in January)
and higher seasonal demand; and (c) how much palladium Russia exported to
Switzerland.

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