Gold prices are moderately higher and notched a four-month peak in early U.S. trading Monday, on a slowly improving chart posture and increasing safe-haven demand amid geopolitical worries. April gold was last up $8.50 at $1,332.10 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $6.20 at $1,332.75. March Comex silver last traded up $0.228 at $22.015 an ounce.

The Ukrainian president was ousted during the weekend and is now in hiding. The situation there remains very fluid. If that situation sees violence escalate, more risk aversion would enter the market place. The Ukrainian developments and some civil unrest and violence in Thailand are prompting increased safe-haven demand for gold.

There was a Group of 20 economic and finance ministers meeting in Sydney, Australia, during the weekend. The group laid out a plan for the major industrial economies to continue with their aggressive monetary stimulus plans, while at the same time called for the emerging countries to restructure their economies to contain inflation. The proclamation was mostly ignored by world markets.

Asian and European stock markets were pressured Monday in part on reports Chinese banks have ratcheted back lending to commercial property developers. Traders and investors have become more concerned about slowing economic growth in China the past few months. China is the world’s second-largest economy and the world’s largest consumer of raw commodities.

In other news overnight, the European Union saw its consumer price index fall at the largest rate since EU records began in 2001—down 1.1% in January, month-on-month. This report intensifies worries about deflationary price pressures in the European Union and puts more pressure on the European Central Bank to add more monetary stimulus. There was an upbeat German Ifo business confidence report released Monday.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The violence in Ukraine and now Thailand is keeping some increased risk in the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fix is $1,333.00 versus the P.M. fixing of $1,323.25.

Technically, April gold futures prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and have just hit a four-month high. The gold bulls still have the near-term technical advantage and still have momentum on their side. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above technical resistance at $1,360.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,337.10 and then at $1,350.00. First support is seen at $1,325.00 and then at the overnight low of $1,318.70.  

March silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and hit a fresh four-month high Monday.

Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $22.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $20.67. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $22.18 and then at $22.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $21.52 and then at last week’s low of $21.315.

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