Gold is under pressure. While the metal may consolidate around the 200day MA at
$1,296 ahead of next week’s data releases around employment in the US, we expect
further downside. Demand from Asia remains lacklustre despite the sharp drop in price
over the past two weeks. The SGE premium moved further into negative territory today,
trading as low as -$6.61, compared to yesterday’s low of -$5.23 and -$4.08 the day
before. The next major support level for the metal is $1,272.
Fundamentally, rallies are likely to fade, and gold should be approached form the short
side. Right now, silver is back in the $19 - $20 zone that has provided good support
since mid-2013. We believe shorting it here makes no sense. However, a break below
$19.00 may attract new interest on the short side — which would probably require
gold to move lower first.
Platinum and palladium are under pressure. Our tactical view over the past nine months
has been that it is not worth being short platinum below $1,400 – and we stand by this
view. We see value in palladium on approach of $750, given the ramp-up in South
African palladium ETFs.
Given our tactical view on platinum, as well as our view that gold below its 200day MA
looks weak, we see potential for the platinum/gold spread to widen towards $150, then
possibly $200.

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