Gold prices are trading steady to slightly lower in early U.S. dealings Thursday. The bearish technical posture that has gripped the gold market this week is presently trumping potential safe-haven buying on the Russia-Ukraine crisis. June gold was last down $1.60 at $1,301.90 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $1.30 at $1,301.40. May Comex silver last traded up $0.011 at $19.645 an ounce.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis is not simmering down. A foreign ministers meeting including officials from the U.S., Russia, Ukraine and the European Union got under way in Geneva, Switzerland Thursday to try to de-escalate the situation. The U.S. is leading an effort to slap further economic and diplomatic sanctions on Russia. As the three-day Easter holiday weekend approaches, it would not be surprising to see the safe-haven assets, including gold, see at least some fresh buying interest surface and to see the market place move into a “risk-off” mode. The Russia-Ukraine crisis could escalate into an international crisis in a hurry.

European stock markets were weaker Thursday, following their recent rallies. The Ukraine crisis prompted some selling interest heading into the weekend. However, selling pressure in European equities was limited by perceived dovish monetary policy comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday afternoon. U.S. stock indexes were slightly weaker in early electronic trading Thursday.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the Philadelphia Fed business survey.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.5 (The Russia-Ukraine tensions are on the front burner of the market place heading into a three-day holiday weekend.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fix is $1,299.25 versus the P.M. fixing of $1,301.50.

Technically, June Comex gold bears have the near-term technical advantage. A downtrend line can now be drawn from the March and April highs on the daily chart.
Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,331.40. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below technical support at the April low of $1,277.40. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $1,307.10 and then at $1,320.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,296.60 and then at this week’s low of $1,284.40.  

May silver futures bears have the solid near-term technical advantage as prices hit a 2.5-month low this week. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $20.40 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $19.805 and then at $20.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $19.49 and then at this week’s low of $19.22.

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