Gold prices are moderately lower and scored a three-week low in early U.S. trading Tuesday. The long holiday weekend in the U.S. saw potential geopolitical tensions de-escalate just a bit. Risk appetite in the world market place is on the upswing early this week, as U.S. stock indexes are at or near record or multi-year highs, while the U.S. dollar index is weaker. June Comex gold was last down $14.40 at $1,277.40 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $15.00 at $1,278.00. July Comex silver last traded down $0.298 at $19.115 an ounce.

The Russia-Ukraine territorial crisis appears to have ratcheted down at least a notch over the holiday weekend. The Ukraine held a presidential election on Sunday. The new president-elect of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, said he wanted to work with Russia and with Europe on integrating his country into both. Recent rhetoric from Russian president Vladimir Putin also seemed to be more conciliatory.  This news allowed some more risk appetite to creep back into the market place Tuesday. However, reports also said there is still significant fighting occurring between Ukrainian government troops and pro-Russian separatists.

The European Union saw parliamentary election results during the weekend.  Italy and Germany saw their present governing parties declare victory, which was deemed as calming to the market place. There had been concern in the EU about anti-EU candidates making a strong showing, which helped to push EU periphery countries’ bond yields higher recently. However, the so-called Euro-skeptics did make progress in France and the United Kingdom. The Euro currency and European stock markets were supported by the weekend EU election results.

There is a heavy slate of U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday, including durable goods orders, the U.S. flash services PMI, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the monthly house price index, the consumer confidence index, the Texas manufacturing survey, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Russia-Ukraine crisis has de-escalated a bit and EU elections were deemed friendly to markets.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fix is $1,283.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,291.50.

Technically, June gold futures bears have regained the near-term technical advantage early this week. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $1,268.40. First resistance is seen at $1,285.00 and then at the overnight high of $1,294.80. First support is seen at the May low of $1,272.00 and then at $1,268.40.  

July silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh downside momentum Tuesday as prices hit a two-week low. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $20.005 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $18.685. First resistance is seen at the $19.25 and then at the overnight high of $19.50. Next support is seen at $19.045 and then at $18.95.

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