Gold prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading Thursday. The yellow metal pushed above unchanged in the wake of an unexpected rise in weekly U.S. jobless claims, to 311,000, when a rise of 295,000 was expected in the latest reporting week. Gold prices were slightly lower in overnight trading. December Comex gold was last up $3.20 at $1,317.70 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $4.10 at $1,316.75. December Comex silver last traded up $0.071 at $19.98 an ounce.

The recently stronger U.S. dollar index that is hovering near a six-month high has limited the upside in gold recently. However, the gold market bears are being kept in check by a trickle of safe-haven buying interest.

In overnight news, the European Union saw more downbeat economic reports, as the bloc’s gross domestic product showed a zero percent growth rate in the second quarter from the first, and was up 0.7% year-on-year. Particularly, GDP in Germany and France—the two largest EU members—was disappointing.  Meantime, the EU consumer price index fell 0.7% in July from June and was up 0.4% year-on-year. The CPI report added to ongoing worries regarding price deflation in the EU. The 10-year German bund fell to a record low of below 1% on the EU economic news Thursday. European stock markets were pressured on the EU data, while the Euro currency traded near steady on the news.

There are still geopolitical hotspots in the world, but the market place this week has put those matters on the back burner as there have been no serious flare-ups, and because summer is winding down. I suspect that early September could see renewed concerns regarding geopolitics, which would be bullish for the safe-haven gold market.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and import and export price indexes.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The market place this week is less focused on the still-simmering geopolitical matters: the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Iraq and the Gaza strip.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fix is $1,315.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,312.00.

Technically, gold bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,328.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,321.80 and then at the August high of $1,324.30. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,310.00 and then at this week’s low of $1,306.00.  

December silver futures bears have the near-term technical advantage as prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Prices Wednesday hit a two-month low.
Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.70 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $19.50. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $20.045 and then at $20.25. Next support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $19.77 and then at $19.60.

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