Gold Ends Slightly Lower; Brexit Vote On Deck

(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session slightly lower Wednesday and notched a two-week low overnight. Some profit taking and position evening were featured. This week’s better risk appetite in the marketplace has been a negative for safe-haven gold. However, with Thursday’s Brexit vote looming, look for sellers in the gold market to become scarce until at least Friday morning. August Comex gold was last down $1.60 an ounce at $1,270.90. July Comex silver was last down $0.009 at $17.31 an ounce.

Thursday’s Brexit vote could be the most important world markets event of the summer. There has been increased risk appetite in the marketplace this week due to polls showing Thursday’s U.K. vote on whether that country stays in or leaves the European Union favor the “stay” camp. However, the polls are close, which is still causing a bit of uncertainty in the marketplace, and will continue to do so until Thursday’s vote. The vote’s results should be available sometime later Thursday evening, U.S. time. London bookmakers are saying the odds are about 75% the U.K. will stay in the EU. A U.K. vote to leave the EU would likely create high uncertainty and tensions in world stock, currency and financial markets.

The key “outside markets” on Wednesday saw the U.S. dollar index weaker as the greenback bears are gaining downside momentum this week. Nymex crude oil prices were also weaker and trading back below $50.00 a barrel.

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Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 2.5 (Trader and investor market risk aversion is not elevated today.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 5, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 5 being the most risk-averse (risk-off).

(Note: Follow me on Twitter--@jimwyckoff--for breaking market news.)

Technically, August gold futures prices closed nearer the session high today.  The gold bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,250.00. First resistance is seen at $1,275.00 and then at $1,280.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,263.80 and then at $1,250.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0

July silver futures prices closed nearer the session high today. The silver market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $18.06 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.75. First resistance is seen at $17.50 and then at this week’s high of $17.66. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $17.105 and then at $17.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

July N.Y. copper closed up 145 points at 213.05 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, on more short covering. The copper bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have gained some upside momentum. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 214.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 201.30 cents. First resistance is seen at 214.50 cents and then at 218.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 210.65 cents and then at 207.10 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com