Editor's Note: Kitco News has officially launched its 2017 Outlook where we ask if this is the start of a new Raging Bullmarket. Be sure to catch all our coverage here, which includes gold forecasts, special technical reports and of course, our popular Invest Like The Experts Series. We will also be launching a new feature so be sure to stay tuned!
(Kitco News) - Kitco News readers are certainly more optimistic about gold’s prospects for the year ahead than they were 12 months ago, and they are even more enthusiastic about silver.
In lieu of the normal Kitco News weekly gold survey, participants -- in an online survey -- this time were asked where they see gold ending 2017. A total of 3,061 votes were cast.
The largest camp – at 41% -- looks for gold to be above $1,400 an ounce a year from now. Another 20% see gold between $1,300 and $1,399.
Collectively, this means 61% of the survey participants look for gold to end 2017 above $1,300. By contrast, in the same survey done 12 months ago for 2016, only 32% of the voters looked for gold to be $1,300 or better in the current year that is winding down.
Meanwhile, only 12% of the respondents see gold finishing 2017 below $1,000 an ounce. Conversely, as 2015 was ending, 33% of respondents had expected gold to finish below $1,000.
Only 4% of respondents expect gold to finish 2017 in the price range of $1,000 to $1,199, where it is trading now. Nineteen predicted this range in the survey a year ago.
Curiously, one factor was the same as both years drew to a close, yet the market seems to be dreading it less this time around. That would be tightening of Federal Reserve monetary policy.
In 2015, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates just once, with this coming at the final meeting of the year. Traders at the time expected several more increases in 2016, which did not materialize. Instead, the Fed again hiked just once in 2016, with this again occurring at the final meeting of the year, although the so-called dot-plot shows policymakers anticipate three more hikes in 2017.
Silver Expected To Fare Best In 2017
Besides being asked to pick a price range where they expect gold to finish 2017, Kitco readers were also asked which of the metals that trades on CME Group exchanges is likely to fare best. Forty-eight percent expect silver to be the strongest in 2017, followed by gold at 30%. Copper was favored by 14%, while platinum outperformance was listed by 5%, and 4% favored palladium.
In the survey a year ago, 54% of respondents said silver would do best during 2016. The rest of the class included gold, 28%; platinum, 14%; copper, 3%, and palladium, 2%.
Palladium might have gotten the least love in surveys, but nevertheless outgained all of the others in 2016, based on futures continuation charts through Thursday’s close. Palladium futures were up 19.7% for the year to date, while silver was up 17.2% and copper 16.4%. Gold had gained 9.3%. Platinum was the laggard, adding 0.6%.
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
