Gold Weaker Amid Calmer Geopolitical Scene Recently

(Kitco News) - Gold prices were ending the U.S. day session moderately lower Thursday. A quieter world geopolitical front in recent weeks and bearish near-term technical charts are presently working against the gold market bulls. August Comex gold was last down $3.90 an ounce at $1,245.20. September Comex silver was last down $0.101 at $16.69 an ounce.

An important feature in the marketplace this week has been rising world government bond yields. Earlier this week central bank officials, many of whom were speaking at a conference in Portugal, sounded a more hawkish tone on their monetary policies. It appears the central bankers of the world are now embracing the U.S. Federal Reserve’s notion that the time has come to start raising interest rates and winding down the extraordinary quantitative easing programs that have been in place for nearly 10 years. The “easy money” from the central bankers the past several years has been a bullish underlying factor for the precious metals markets. With the QE programs from the central banks now ready to wind down further, it’s a bearish element for the metals.

The key “outside markets” on Thursday saw Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly higher. Oil bulls are having a good week as short covering has been featured. However, the oil market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index was lower again today and hit another seven-month low overnight. The greenback bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The precious metals bulls are frustrated this week’s big plunge in the greenback did not provide more upside price support to their markets.

One matter the gold bulls are monitoring very closely is the wobbly nature of the world stock markets this week—especially U.S. stock indexes. When the air does finally start to come out of the bullish and now seemingly over-inflated equities balloon, the competing asset class precious metals will benefit.

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Technically, August gold futures prices closed near mid-range. The gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,270.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $1,217.80. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,253.20 and then at last week’s high of $1,260.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,239.70 and then at this week’s low of 1,236.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

September silver futures prices closed nearer the session low today. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $17.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $16.125. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $16.915 and then at $17.00. Next support is seen at $16.55 and then at this week’s low of $16.28. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

September N.Y. copper closed up 235 points at 269.90 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a nearly three-month high today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 284.95 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 252.90 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 271.55 cents and then at 275.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 267.05 cents and then at 265.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.