(Kitco News) - Nobody can accuse Wall Street or Main Street participants in the Kitco News gold survey of paraskevidekatriaphobia.
Wall Street
65%
18%VS
Main Street
61%30%This is the fear of Friday the 13th. And even though the survey falls on this superstitious day, participants were expecting good luck – not bad – for gold, calling for the metal to be higher by the end of next week.
The metal ran into good fortune this week when minutes of the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed that policymakers may not be as hawkish as previously thought. That, combined with a softer-than-forecast U.S. Consumer Price Index, enabled Comex December gold to pop back above $1,300 an ounce on Friday for the first time since Sept. 26.
Seventeen market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. Eleven participants, or 65%, look for gold to be higher next week. Three, or 18%, called for lower, and the same number saw a sideways market.
Meanwhile, 740 votes were cast in an online Main Street poll, in which 448 voters, or 61%, predicted gold will rise in the week ahead. Another 224, or 30%, were bearish. The neutral votes totaled 68, or 9%.
For the trading week now winding down, 67% of Wall Street voters were bearish, while the largest bloc of Main street voters (44%) was bullish. Around 11:03 a.m. EDT, Comex December gold was up by 2.1% for the week so far to $1,301.80 an ounce.
So far in 2017, but not counting the current week, Wall Street forecasters collectively were right 23 of 39 times for a winning percentage of 59%. Main Street was right 24 of 38 times for 63%. Wall Street was ahead for nearly all of 2017 before a four-week losing streak on the verge of becoming five weeks.
“I believe geopolitics surrounding the Iran deal and North Korea, together with buoyancy from rising commodities, will lift gold to $1,310 per ounce next week – possibly higher,” said Richard Baker, editor of the Eureka Miner Report. “Silver should follow gold higher next week to $17.40 per ounce.”
Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, also looks for more gains. “It is increasingly clear that the Federal Reserve is going to be extremely cautious with any tightening,” he said.
Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, looks for gold to try to fill a gap on a daily chart above the market. “It’s technical and wants to move higher,” he said.
Peter Degraaf, a regular commentator for Kitco News, also sees prices rising.
“October is usually a positive month for the gold price, as Chinese demand is strong after the ‘Golden Week Holiday,’” he said. “The U.S. dollar index appears to be weakening again, after a technical rebound in September. Weakness in the dollar index almost always coincides with a rising gold price.”
Adam Button, currency analyst with Forexlive.com, among those who anticipates the market will head back to the downside. “The U.S. dollar momentum is fading as we get into the weeds of the tax cut debate, but there is still enough in the tank to clip gold.”
Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC, is among those who are neutral in the short term. On the one hand, Friday’s CPI data was supportive and worries about North Korea remained. However, he said, December gold is still facing technical resistance around $1,305, which is also where the contract stopped at a session high of $1,305.10 as of late in the New York morning.
“As long as we stay below that ($1,305) number, I think you’ll see…a bit of profit-taking,” Grady said. He added that “one thing really throwing people off” is uncertainty about who will be the next leader of the Federal Reserve. “Until we get more clarity on that, the future interest-rate picture is going to be a little murky.”
Here is a sampling of thoughts from Kitco Main Street voters on Kitco’s commenting Kitco Chat:
