(Kitco News) - Wall Street and Main Street voters in the weekly Kitco News gold survey look for the precious metal to work its way higher next week, with some even looking for the market to retest $1,300 an ounce.
Wall Street
68%
11%VS
Main Street
57%31%Wall Street and Main Street voters in the weekly Kitco News gold survey look for the precious metal to work its way higher next week, with some even looking for the market to retest $1,300 an ounce.
A total of 19 market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. Thirteen, or 68%, called for gold to rise. Two participants, or 11%, looked for gold to fall, while four, or 21%, said neutral or sideways.
Meanwhile, 744 votes were cast in an online Main Street poll. A total of 421 voters, or 57%, looked for gold to rise in the next week. Another 229, or 31%, said lower, while 94, or 13%, were neutral.
For the trading week now winding down, 56% of Wall Street and Main Street voters were bullish. As of 11:07 a.m. EST, as Comex December gold was down by 0.7% for the week so far to $1,287.90 an ounce.
So far in 2017, but not counting the current week, Wall Street forecasters collectively were right 27 of 45 times for a winning percentage of 59%. Main Street was right 28 of 44 times for 64%.
“I expect risk aversion to ramp up to close out the month, and that should lend a bid to gold,” said Adam Button, managing director of ForexLive.
Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at trading house MKS (Switzerland) S.A., is among those who see potential for gold to test the $1,300 level.
“The dollar seems to be coming off,” Nabavi said. “The [expected] rate hike in December seems to be pretty much discounted by the market. So it’s a possibility to see higher [prices] next week.”
Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst with Kitco, said “charts slightly favor the bulls.”
Phillip Streible, senior market strategist with RJO Futures, said that whereas gold could be pinned down in the near term due to activity around an options expiration, “I would anticipate another bull charge into next week. I would expect a possible break through $1,300 based on momentum.”
Eugen Weinberg, analyst with Commerzbank, described himself as neutral to bullish on gold in the near term, but longer term expects gold’s next big move to be on the upside. He pointed out that gold has been able to hold up despite headwinds such as strong equities and the surge in bitcoin prices.
“Despite plenty of reasons to sell off, gold has held steady,” Weinberg said. “So if gold can’t go down, then the next move should be to the upside,” he said.
Nick Exarhos, senior economist at CIBC World Markets, said he slightly bearish on gold in the near term. He suggested that weakness in the U.S. dollar, following this week’s release of Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes, is a little overdone and that does not bode well for gold. However, Exarhos also said he does not see prices breaking down dramatically but instead suggested they could simply tick toward the bottom end of the recent range.
Bob Mason, technical analyst at FXempire.com, is also bearish, although he commented that he doesn’t see anything on the horizon to drive gold out of its range in the near term.
“Gold could be slightly overvalued and the U.S. dollar could be slightly undervalued,” Mason said. “If we see geopolitical risks subside, then we will see a correction in gold.”
Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC, described himself as neutral on gold in the short term.
“We have seen some large-volume moves in the past week, yet we still remain in the range of $1,272 to $1,298,” he said. “For me, the 200 DMA [day moving average] of $1,272 is a huge number. I will be looking to see if we can settle below that area, as this [could] attract profit taking.”
Robin Bhar, metals analyst at Societe Generale, also looks for gold to be roughly flat, commenting that traders will monitor economic data and Federal Reserve comments for clues on the future of U.S. monetary policy. In addition, traders will keep an eye on the outcome of an OPEC meeting, he adds. “That might have an indirect impact on gold.”
Here is a sampling of thoughts from Kitco Main Street voters on Kitco’s commenting Kitco Chat:
