Gold can't hold gains, bears gain momentum

(Kitco News) - Gold futures prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Tuesday and gave back modest overnight gains. Today’s losses in the yellow metal have given the bears some fresh downside momentum to suggest more price pressure in the near term. Likely mitigating selling pressure, however, will be some safe-haven demand due to potential storm clouds on the horizon. February gold futures were last down $12.90 at $1,837.90 and March Comex silver was last up $0.081 at $25.37 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are weaker at midday. Traders and investors are weighing the positives of the likely end to the surge of the Covid-19 pandemic by springtime and vaccinations shifting into high gear, as well as big U.S. government spending programs being implemented by the Democrat-controlled Congress, against the uncertainties that lie just ahead: a possible Trump impeachment, potential civil unrest in the U.S. in the next couple weeks, and the pandemic in the U.S. and other nations still being at or close to its deadliest.

A feature in the marketplace just recently has been rising U.S. Treasury yields. Read that rising interest rates. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield is currently fetching 1.17%. For more than a decade Americans have not had to worry about high interest rates. Make no mistake, U.S. bond yields at present are nowhere near worrisomely high levels that might suggest high inflation. However, it’s the trajectory of the yields that is raising eyebrows and merits continued close observation. High inflation is usually the enemy of the stock markets and the friend of commodity markets.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher, hit a 10-month high today, and are trading around $53.00 a barrel.

Technically, February gold futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bears have momentum. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the January high of $1,962.50. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,800.00. First resistance is seen at $1,850.00 and then at today’s high of $1,864.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $1,827.80 and then at this week’s low of $1,817.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March silver futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $29.105 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $24.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $25.745 and then at $26.000. Next support is seen at today’s low of $25.00 and then at last week’s low of $24.53. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 455 points at 361.00 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 375.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 345.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 364.30 cents and then at this week’s high of 369.25 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 355.25 cents and then at 352.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

 jwyckoff@kitco.com

www.kitco.com